- Introduction
- The Chamber welcomes the opportunity to comment on the 1996 TDSR. Nevertheless, we have
found it difficult, adequately, to comment on a complex study which has taken six years in
gestation and encompasses such a wide variety of disciplines, most of which require their
own professional expertise. This submission represents the coordinated comments from
representatives of the Hong Kong Coalition of Service Industries and six Chamber
committees.
- The TDSR is a rolling strategy with a series of projects, most of which it is proposed
to implement by 2011. The main debate concerns what course the Medium Term Strategy should
follow. Since time to implement the Medium Term Strategy is very short, a major focus of
this response is a clarion call for early action. A further important issue is the need to
coordinate Hong Kong's development with that in the Pearl River Delta.
- The Chamber's comments should be seen as endorsement by exception of the TDSR, with
emphasis on the Medium Term Strategy. Where exceptions are made, they cover broad policy
issues.
- Assumptions
- Population Growth. A key factor will be population growth. We note that the
Government has acknowledged difficulties to date in accurately forecasting this and
especially of factoring in the main variable, which is net migration. We doubt whether
sufficient consideration has been given to greatly increased cross border flows of
personnel in the future for the purposes of living, retirement or work, particularly as
additional cross border road/rail links are opened. We suspect this could account for
substantial variations in the forecast of the day-time/night-time population. Furthermore,
we note that no reference has been made to illegal immigration, which historically has
always added a significant percentage to the population. For these reasons, whilst
awaiting the analysis of the 1996 By-Census, we query whether even the upper scenario of
8.1 million by 2011 is high enough. We recommend the TDSR should assume a strategic growth
of at least 8.1 million people by 2011.
Population growth has such a significant impact
on the TDS and on Hong Kong's future economic development that it should be subject to
regular reviews to take account of SAR Government policies and updated migration
statistics. In terms of policy response and development strategy, the uncertainties Hong
Kong faces in population growth indicate a need to provide extra land and the necessary
infrastructure which could serve as a land reserve to cater for higher-than-expected
population growth.
- Hub Functions. As stated in the TDSR, the future hub functions of Hong Kong
reflect a straight line projection of the existing economic structure. In part, we believe
this is correct. For instance, the port will remain central to the economy. This is likely
to encourage industrial development to cluster around it. In turn, this points to the need
for adequate land reclamation to meet these requirements.The TDSR is a rolling strategy
with a series of projects, most of which it is proposed to implement by 2011. The main
debate concerns what course the Medium Term Strategy should follow. Since time to
implement the Medium Term Strategy is very short, a major focus of this response is a
clarion call for early action. A further important issue is the need to coordinate Hong
Kong's development with that in the Pearl River Delta.
However, some functions will
change. In the 1980s, the new towns in the New Territory were conceived as self-contained
industrial towns. But the market changed as manufacturers found it more cost effective to
relocate to China than the New Territories. Subsequently, Hong Kong, therefore, developed
into a service economy. As the TDSR points out, tertiary industries like to congregate
around the Main Business District.
Looking to the future, we doubt whether sufficient account has been taken of the
ongoing emergence of the "information economy". The implications of this are, as
yet, unclear. A more coherent Government view would be welcomed. Certainly, this is
another factor which will require periodic review and flexibility to manage the resulting
change.
- Job Distribution
The TDSR envisages the decentralization of commercial office
centres from the Central Business District to locations of major transport interchanges.
This is impracticable in most new towns because the areas in close proximity to mass
transit facilities are already occupied by residential estates; and businessmen will not
locate offices away from easy access to public transport. Furthermore, despite the advent
of the information age, personal contact is still considered an important advantage.
Therefore, unlike Singapore, where the Government directs businesses to designated areas,
in Hong Kong, a clear propensity for business to congregate around the main business
district in the metro area remains - and the market rules. Moreover, Hong Kong people like
to work in the Metro area away from their place of residence. For these reasons, we
believe the future pattern of job and population distribution in Hong Kong will be one of
residing in the new towns and commuting to work mainly in the metro area or around the
port.
- Transport Infrastructure
- Foremost in the TDS must be the development of a fast mass transit system if Hong Kong
is to cope satisfactorily with the projected population and freight movement. This will be
essential for the development of the New Territories and to facilitate the practice of
working in the metro area, whilst commuting to and from better and cheaper residential
accommodation adjacent to transport nodes.
- In this respect, we support the view that new towns and development areas must be of a
size sufficient to ensure the financial viability of the mass transit systems which serve
them.
- The TDS is predicated on the principle that the transport infrastructure should be
reactive to meet projected requirements. It is the Chamber's view that transport
infrastructure should also be proactive and take the lead in promoting development. For
this reason, we recommend that:
- The Western Rail Link should be developed as a package for both freight and passengers
as soon as possible. We believe the impetus this will provide for the development of
inland areas of China would improve the financial viability of the whole project.
- The second Lantau Rail Link should be upgraded from a Group C to a Group A project.
- The possible MTR link from Central through Kai Tak to Tseung Kwan O should be upgraded
also to a firm project for early completion.
- A medium-term strategy for Hong Kong should take into account the evolution in the
relationship between Hong Kong and its hinterland. For example, the TDSR document does not
deal with the plans by Shenzhen or Zhuhai for additional road/bridge links with Hong Kong.
The Hong Kong Government may not agree with those plans, but the Government should provide
adequate facts and arguments to support or repudiate such proposals so as to facilitate a
meaningful debate.
- Property
The Chamber believes that a flexible land supply policy to meet
market demands is a prerequisite to property development in the TDS. This includes making
better use of existing land. However, it should be borne in mind that most of the
opportunities to redevelop redundant facilities, such as outdated dockyards and power
stations, or to relocate non-conforming uses, such as oil storage depots, steel mills and
shipyards, have been fully exploited. Similarly, the policy of urban renewal inevitably
dislodges and displaces more people than can be re-housed in the new developments. Hence,
given these limitations and the need for timely action, it is likely that the majority of
the increased demand identified under TDS can only be met by the release of suitably
located existing agricultural or Crown land or newly-formed land.
- Residential. There is a need for an additional land supply for all categories of
private sector development, and especially for the luxury sector, to provide affordable
housing and to discourage speculation. At the same time, existing town boundaries should
be extended to increase capacity whilst utilising the established infrastructure. New
towns should be made attractive to live in to encourage commuting from the place of
residence to work, thus reducing residential pressures in the Metro area. Many residential
areas also need to be redeveloped. The problem of residential buildings getting old and
obsolete will increase gradually in the next decade.
- Commercial. Careful thought should be given to the creation of new commercial
modes, given the level of supply projected from LDC and MTRC related schemes over the next
five to eight years. The retail sector, in particular, is in some disarray with a number
of casualties at the margin and future plans should focus on large regional centres above
or close to a transport interchange which will be able to offer the convenience and the
range of choice and experience now expected by the consumer.
- Industrial. The TDSR raises the problem of obsolete industrial areas, but offers
no proposals for their redevelopment. Many industrial areas in the urban areas need to be
utilized more efficiently. Most of the manufacturing sector has now been relocated.
Therefore, many of the problems of the industrial/residential interface have also
disappeared. The Chamber recommends consideration should be given to rezoning these areas
for residential or commercial use.
Land is too important a resource in Hong Kong to be under utilized. To prevent urban
decay and to maximize the use of valuable urban land, Hong Kong must address the issues
related to urban renewal and redevelopment seriously. Obstacles to redevelopment posed by
planning, building, environment, minority ownership and other considerations must be
addressed. If necessary, the community may have to make some hard decisions whether some
of these considerations need to be compromised in order to expedite redevelopment. The
Government's earlier proposal for upgrading the Land Development Corporation into an Urban
Renewal Authority is an incremental step in this direction. But the scale of the problem
is much bigger than the proposed Urban Renewal Authority could tackle; and this problem is
going to get worse.
- Environment
- The Chamber supports measures to conserve Hong Kong's natural heritage, including the
framework of land and marine based conservation areas. The environmental situation in Hong
Kong has been seriously degraded by development to date. What is needed now is urgent
remedial action and minimisation of further damage to the ecology. In part, the 1989 White
Paper, a ten-year pollution abatement programme, which is ongoing, has made some progress
to remedy the situation. However, it seems clear that air pollution will get worse unless
attitudes change and the will to implement changes can be found.
- The Study on Sustainable Development for the 21st Century (SUSDEV21), which begins in
about February 1997, should have taken place concurrently with the TDSR. However, it now
seems very likely that decisions on the Medium Term Strategy under the TDSR will be
required before the results of the SUSDEV21 study are available, and certainly before any
benefits arising from SUSDEV21 can be felt. It is essential therefore that the Government
presses ahead as fast as possible with SUSDEV21. In particular, we support the view that,
based on the SUSDEV indicators on progress towards sustainable development, the
Consultants findings should be prioritised with emphasis on air pollution in particular,
waste minimization and on how government can better integrate the management of
sustainability issues.
- Medium Term Strategy
- In summary, the Strategy states the obvious. Therefore, we endorse the balance
represented by a compromise between the New Territories and Harbour solutions. Indeed,
there is little option but to do so in view of lead time constraints. However, every
opportunity should be taken to capitalise on existing infrastructure in the New
Territories where possible. Specifically, the area around the focal transport node at Au
Tau - Kam Tin should be a key area for priority development.
- The Chamber's main criticism is that it has taken far too long to develop a strategy for
which there is, as yet, no implementation plan. In short, the time for talking has run out
and the time for action has arrived. With building lead times running at seven years,
there is, also, a clear need to streamline the mechanics of development procedures.
Concurrently, firm planning should begin now, to be followed as soon as possible by the
necessary land resumption.
- The Consultative Digest opens with an acknowledgement of the close relationship between
Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta. Yet, surprisingly, little further mention is made of
this relationship, which impinges on most aspects of the TDSR. Proposals to achieve closer
integration and coordination with the Pearl River Delta should be included in the
implementation plan.
- TDS Implementation
The TDS is a highly complex concept. A large number of
business and government interests are involved. In the bureaucracy alone, some four
government secretariats and nine departments participate in the process. Unfortunately,
various parties, including some Legislative Councillors, have obstructed and delayed the
progress of the TDS. Whilst this has been going on, Hong Kong has run out of time. We
recommend, therefore, the establishment of a strong, executive-led task force, similar to
the Airport Development Strategy Committee (ADSCOM), with substantial powers to drive the
implementation of the final TDS plan, within a proscribed time frame, in the interests of
the future SAR of Hong Kong.
Finally, the Chamber thanks you for this opportunity to comment. We hope our views will
be helpful. We shall be happy to discuss with you any of the issues we have raised, should
you wish
